Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 36% as Senate Shelves Crypto Bill
The CLARITY Act's Polymarket odds have fallen to 36% as the Senate shelves the bill for Russia sanctions votes and recess. Analysts see a 60-vote threshold and partisan opposition as key hurdles.
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The odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 are falling. The probability on Polymarket dropped to 36% from a July 21 peak of 53% after the White House agreed on ethics rules. Kalshi shows a 43% chance President Trump signs the bill into law by January 2027.
The Senate has shelved the crypto bill to take up Russia sanctions legislation and vote on Trump's federal appointments. That delay, analysts said, pushes the earliest possible floor vote into the week of August 3 – the same week the chamber breaks for summer recess.
Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, called the calendar the "central constraint" to passage. "The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy," Thorn said. If the bill does not pass before recess, its odds fall sharply because Senate business will be consumed by midterm election politics, he added.
Thorn estimates only a 30% chance the bill clears the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster. Republicans hold 53 seats, but two GOP senators – Josh Hawley and Rand Paul – are likely no votes. Mitch McConnell is hospitalized and may not vote. That leaves Republicans with 50 votes in favor, requiring 10 Democrats to cross the aisle.
Seven Democratic senators who could have provided those votes are now pushing back against the latest text, saying it contains inadequate ethics provisions, according to Thorn.