Market-implied probability for the crypto bill's 2026 passage fell 6.5 points in 24 hours. The stablecoin yield and ethics disputes block a Senate floor vote.
Alpha Score of 38 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The market-implied probability that President Trump signs the Clarity Act into law in 2026 fell to 31.5% from 38% in the past 24 hours, according to Vera prediction-market data. The drop reflects growing doubts that the U.S. crypto legislation will clear the Senate before the end of the current session.
The House approved the bill in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee passed it as well. The full Senate has not scheduled a floor vote. Three unresolved disputes are blocking progress: stablecoin yields, ethics rules, and DeFi developer liability. The stablecoin-yield question splits both caucuses, a Senate aide familiar with the negotiations told Vera. The ethics language on lawmakers trading crypto remains contested. DeFi developer liability for user losses is a separate sticking point.
The Clarity Act would split crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. The CFTC would get authority over digital commodities. The SEC would keep jurisdiction over tokens that function as securities. It is the only federal crypto framework with committee passage in either chamber. A floor vote would signal real momentum; the current stall suggests the opposite.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not committed to a timeline. Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott has pushed for a vote but faces resistance from members who want the stablecoin-yield language tightened. President Trump has not taken a public position on the bill since his July statement calling for "clear rules" without endorsing the specific text. Any White House signal could shift the odds.
Vera prediction-market data showed the probability at its lowest point since the House vote. The market is pricing a binary outcome: passage before the 2026 midterms or not at all.
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