TD Cowen gives the CLARITY Act a 25% chance of passing this fall. Jaret Seiberg mapped three failure paths. Trump adviser Patrick Witt says talks continue up to the September vote.
Alpha Score of 38 reflects weak overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The CLARITY Act has just a 25% chance of becoming law this fall, according to a TD Cowen note published Aug. 10. Analyst Jaret Seiberg put the odds of failure at 75%.
The report came two days after Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a motion to advance the bill. The legislation would assign oversight of digital commodities to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and leave investment contract assets under the Securities and Exchange Commission. It cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15-9 vote in May.
TD Cowen outlined three failure scenarios. In the first, the Senate passes the initial procedural vote in September, then talks collapse over ethics and money laundering rules, and Democrats block the final vote. In the second, the Senate never holds the vote at all – Republicans may want to avoid a floor fight tied to President Trump’s crypto holdings. In the third, the first vote passes but nothing follows: no debate, no amendments, no further votes. One crypto executive called that outcome a “walking dead” state for the bill.
Senators have argued for months over ethics rules and anti-money laundering requirements. Senator Cynthia Lummis released updated bill text on July 22 that combined work from two Senate committees. Stablecoin yield is another open question – lawmakers disagree on whether companies should pay holders a return.
Betting markets share TD Cowen’s doubts. As of Aug. 9, traders put the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 21%.
For the bill to pass, TD Cowen said the most likely path involves Democrats getting a vote on their ethics changes and losing it. Some Democrats could then support the bill after that vote, even though their amendment failed. A less likely path involves Trump striking his own ethics deal with Democrats, which could free up enough votes to end debate. Seiberg said the bill could also pass later this year if Republicans hold both chambers of Congress, though he called that unlikely.
Patrick Witt, a top crypto policy adviser to Trump, said Tuesday the administration will keep talking with Democrats “all the way up until the September vote.” He added that the White House “can’t afford to wait forever” on the bill. Lawmakers return to Washington on Sept. 14. Republicans hold 53 seats and need at least seven Democrats or independents to back the vote for it to move forward.
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