Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act fell to 23% after Scaramucci accused the banking lobby of stalling. The Senate recess this week is the deadline; a failed vote pushes the bill past midterms.
Alpha Score of 67 reflects moderate overall profile with strong momentum, moderate value, moderate quality, moderate sentiment.
The CLARITY Act's odds of passage fell to 23% on Polymarket after the banking lobby mounted a last-minute campaign against the bill, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci said Tuesday.
Scaramucci responded to a Wall Street Journal editorial that called the bill a "policy landmine" with regulatory loopholes. The editorial flagged concerns over rules allowing cryptocurrency companies to offer rewards on stablecoin holdings, warning it could pose risks to small banks.
"Expose them. And expose the ciphers working against progress. Free the system from this nonsense," Scaramucci wrote.
The stablecoin rewards clause is the main point of contention. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told lawmakers the structure would create direct competition with banks without imposing equivalent safeguards. JPMorgan, which carries an Alpha Score of 65 from AlphaScala, has been a vocal opponent of the clause.
The Senate heads into recess at the end of this week. If the bill does not clear before then, September becomes the next realistic window. A failed September vote likely pushes the legislation past the midterms entirely.
Scaramucci accused Republicans of intentionally delaying the bill in the Senate to scapegoat Democrats and later cash in on political donations. He warned Democrats they would regret resisting the legislation at the ballot box in November.
The Polymarket odds reflect the growing uncertainty. At 23%, the market sees passage in 2026 as unlikely. The bill's fate now hinges on whether lawmakers can resolve the stablecoin rewards dispute before the recess.
For more on the legislative timeline, see CLARITY Act delay risks US crypto lead, Haridopolos warns.
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