Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act Odds Drop as Trump Crypto Ethics Row Threatens Vote
Prediction markets now put the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year near 40% after a battle over Trump crypto earnings. A Senate vote could come before Aug. 10.
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The odds of the CLARITY Act passing the U.S. Senate this year have fallen after a political dispute over President Donald Trump's crypto earnings threatened to derail the legislation. Polymarket now puts the probability near 40%, down from a higher level earlier in the year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said the chamber will vote on the bill before Aug. 10.
Democratic opposition has hardened. Senators Chris Murphy and Jeff Merkley have spoken out against the bill. Elizabeth Warren has made the ethics issue central, calling on Trump to voluntarily disclose his crypto earnings. Trump's financial disclosures reportedly showed more than $1 billion in crypto-related income, prompting Democrats to demand provisions that would prevent elected officials from promoting or issuing cryptocurrencies.
Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and a former CFTC commissioner, called the ethics issue "the big elephant in the room" but urged lawmakers not to let the dispute block broader crypto regulation. The fight comes as the CFTC itself grapples with a limited commissioner count, a topic covered in an earlier AlphaScala report.