Clarity Act Odds Drop as Traders Doubt 2026 Law

Prediction market traders are betting against the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law in 2026, even as they put strong odds on a Senate vote happening within weeks.

On Polymarket, the contract asking whether the Clarity Act gets signed into law before December 31, 2026, has drawn nearly $1.94 million in volume. Current odds sit at 39% for "yes" and 62% for "no." That "yes" figure has fallen roughly 26% from recent highs.

A separate Kalshi market asks a narrower question: will the Senate hold a recorded vote on the Clarity Act before the August recess. Traders there are far more confident. YES contracts trade at 68 cents, implying a 67.8% chance. That market opened July 10 and closes by August 8, or earlier if a qualifying vote happens first. Only recorded votes count; voice votes and procedural rulings do not.

A third Kalshi market, with $3.1 million in volume, asks whether any crypto market structure legislation becomes federal law, and when. Traders price a 61% chance of enactment before April 1, 2027, 53% before July 1, 2027, and 57% before October 1, 2027. That market has stricter resolution rules than the Polymarket contract. A qualifying bill must create clear rules for digital assets and split authority between the SEC and the CFTC. Stablecoin-only bills like the GENIUS Act do not count. Neither do CBDC-specific bills or legislation that passes only one chamber.

The gap between the two Kalshi markets tells the story. Bettors expect the Senate to act, and soon. They are far less confident that action turns into a signed law by the year's end. A Senate vote is a procedural step. It does not guarantee passage, and it does not guarantee the version that passes matches what the House already approved.