Senate CLARITY Act odds fell to 48% on Polymarket after a Democratic source called ethics negotiations 'rocky.' Today's White House meeting will address law enforcement objections that threaten the bill's path.
Alpha Score of 24 reflects poor overall profile with poor momentum, poor value, weak quality, moderate sentiment.
Polymarket data showed the CLARITY Act's Senate approval odds fell to 48% on Wednesday, down from 55% last week. The drop followed a bipartisan Senate meeting where a Democratic source described negotiations over ethics provisions as "rocky."
Eleanor Terrett, who reported the source's comments, said the Democrat accused GOP members and the White House of an "about-face" on an agreement they claimed had been reached ahead of the Senate Banking Committee markup last month. That earlier deal included a clause that would have let state attorneys general sue the Department of Justice for failing to enforce certain ethics rules.
Republican officials pushed back. They said new issues were raised by senators who had not been part of the original negotiation. Those lawmakers voiced concerns about allowing state AGs to bring actions against federal officials, including members of Congress, Terrett reported.
Law enforcement objections are adding pressure. Portions of the CLARITY Act – particularly the "developer protections" provision tied to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act – could make it harder to combat illicit finance, according to officials cited by Terrett. Some worry the language would hinder investigators from taking enforcement action against digital asset crimes or weaken regulatory oversight tools.
The developer protections and ethics provisions are among the "major sticking points" delaying a Senate floor vote, Terrett wrote. Several Democrats have signaled they will not support the legislation unless law enforcement concerns are addressed.
Wednesday's White House meeting, involving administration and law enforcement officials, will center on those objections. The talks are part of a broader industry push. More than 200 crypto firms, including Ripple and Coinbase, have called for a floor vote.
The lobbying effort includes "a town hall and a fly-in featuring former law enforcement officials now working in crypto," Terrett said. No date for a Senate floor vote has been set.
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