Kalshi contracts for CLARITY Act passage before July 2027 fell 8 points to 41% after Thune skipped cloture. $5.42M in volume traded. Senate recess looms.
Alpha Score of 37 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
Prediction markets have stopped pricing in a 2026 passage for the CLARITY Act after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file cloture Tuesday on the crypto market structure bill. The shift comes as the August recess deadline tightens and procedural hurdles multiply.
Kalshi contracts tied to the bill taking effect before July 1, 2027 fell 8 percentage points to 41% on the day. The odds of passage before Oct. 1, 2027 held steady at 58%, while the probability of enactment before Jan. 1, 2028 jumped to 65%, according to the exchange. Traders have placed more than $5.42 million in volume on the market, reassessing the bill's legislative path.
Senate rules require an intervening day between the first cloture vote and a second vote. If cloture is granted, the floor debate runs 30 hours. Thune has not scheduled a vote, and the chamber is focused on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded. Undecided talks around ethics provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act are also cited as obstacles, journalist Eleanor Terrett said. She added that there was some uncertainty about votes and unresolved issues that may have affected the decision.
To pass, the CLARITY Act needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats must cross the aisle. The absence of a cloture filing suggests Thune does not yet have the votes, even within his own party.
Crypto exchanges and token issuers that have been waiting for a federal regulatory framework remain in limbo. The bill would create a market structure dividing jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, defining which digital assets are securities and which are commodities. Without it, the SEC's enforcement-first approach continues, and the CFTC's authority over spot crypto markets stays limited. Companies like Coinbase, Kraken, and Robinhood have all pushed for the legislation.
A delay reduces the chance of a clear compliance pathway before the 2026 midterm elections, after which the political calculus could shift. The CLARITY Act delay risks the U.S. losing its lead in crypto innovation, Florida Senator-elect Haridopolos has warned.
Thune files cloture on Wednesday and secures the 60-vote threshold. A bipartisan deal on ethics provisions or the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act could unlock Democratic support. The Senate could also fold the CLARITY Act into a must-pass spending bill, bypassing the standalone vote.
A continuing resolution impasse pushes the crypto bill to the back burner for the rest of the year. If the Senate adjourns for August recess without a vote, the earliest cloture could come in September, leaving even less time before the election cycle dominates. The 27% odds on the CLARITY Act's passage after Senate delays already reflect deep skepticism.
Thune's next move. If he files cloture, the Senate will vote on Wednesday or Thursday. If he does not, the bill stalls until after recess. The August 7 deadline is the last realistic window for floor action before the break.
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