
Sen. Lummis pushes to 'finish the job' after CLARITY Act misses July 4. Polymarket odds fell to 48% ahead of the Aug. 7 deadline, the Senate's last session before recess.
The CLARITY Act, a sweeping crypto market structure bill that would define whether digital assets are commodities or securities, missed its July 4 deadline. It is the third deadline the legislation has blown past in 2025, and Congress is running out of time before the 2026 midterm campaign season absorbs legislative attention.
Senate staff from the Agriculture and Banking Committees are trying to reconcile two versions of the bill, each with different language on stablecoin regulation, custody rules, and which agency gets final say over crypto spot markets. The next hard deadline is August 7 – the Senate's last scheduled session before the six-week summer recess.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, the bill's lead sponsor, said she remains committed:
Two hundred and fifty years of American innovation, American freedom, and American grit. The Clarity Act is this generation's contribution to that legacy. Let's finish the job!
Betting market odds on passage stood at 48% as of July 5, according to Polymarket data. That is down from levels above 60% earlier in the year, reflecting growing skepticism among traders who wager on policy outcomes.
The bill has drawn support from unexpected corners. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives became the first major law enforcement group to endorse the CLARITY Act. The Major County Sheriffs of America told the Senate in a letter that it shifted from opposition to neutral.
One obstacle is President Donald Trump's demand that Republicans pass the SAVE America Act before any other legislation moves forward. Trump said he would "not sign other bills" until that happens, effectively freezing the CLARITY Act's path.
Backers say the bill would end years of regulatory ambiguity that has slowed crypto product launches and capital formation. Abstract, a crypto project, is waiting for the law to pass before introducing Project Quantum. The CLARITY Act would also allow businesses to raise up to $50 million annually through token offerings, according to proponents.
Market sentiment remained mixed but leaned positive. About 41.6% of respondents in a recent survey expressed a bullish outlook for the legislation over the last 24 hours, even as the probability of passage fell below 50%.
The August 7 deadline will test whether Congress can break the logjam. If the bill is not reported out of committee by then, the next opportunity would not come until after the midterm elections.
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