CLARITY Act Hits New Law Enforcement Opposition, Odds Recover to 31%

The White House is currently reviewing an ethics proposal from Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego. The proposal would give state attorneys general the authority to sue the Department of Justice if the DOJ fails to enforce the ethics provision. Democrats had pushed back on the original version, which only allowed the DOJ to enforce it. A White House green light could allow the Senate to hold a vote before the August recess, which begins Aug. 4.

The CLARITY Act's odds on Polymarket have climbed from yesterday's low of 23% to 31% as of Friday morning. The recovery reflects trader optimism that the White House will approve the ethics deal and that Senate leadership will schedule a vote next week. A vote before recess would mark the most significant congressional action on crypto regulation in years.

The NSA's opposition, however, could complicate the calculus. The group's letter may give cover to senators who are already skeptical of the BRCA provision. The bill's supporters will need to hold together a bipartisan coalition that includes both pro-crypto Republicans and Democrats who have demanded stronger consumer protections.

For traders watching the legislative calendar, the next concrete marker is the White House decision on the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal. If the White House signs off, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer could bring the CLARITY Act to the floor as early as next week. If the White House balks, the odds of passage this year could slip back toward 20%.