CLARITY Act faces Sept. 15 test as Grayscale sees low odds

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said on Aug. 8 that the CLARITY Act now appears unlikely to become law this year, pointing to a crowded Senate calendar and election year politics.

Yet the bill has not been shelved. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed cloture on H.R. 3633, creating a concrete procedural test when lawmakers return in September.

The development leaves U.S. crypto policy on two tracks. Congress still has an opportunity to establish a permanent market structure framework, while the Securities and Exchange Commission is moving ahead with its own crypto agenda covering issuance, custody, trading and onchain securities. Grayscale argues that crypto markets can continue operating without CLARITY. The firm also warns that the absence of legislation could make the U.S. less attractive for some new investment and development.

The U.S. Senate Daily Press record shows that Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act before the Senate adjourned. The chamber is scheduled to return for regular business on Sept. 14.

Under the Senate schedule, the cloture motion for H.R. 3633 will ripen at 2:15 p.m. on Sept. 15. The step concerns whether senators will proceed to consideration of the legislation. It is not a final passage vote, and the bill would still face debate, amendments and another vote if the Senate agrees to move forward. As crypto.news reported, the legislation needs enough bipartisan support to clear the Senate's 60 vote cloture threshold.

The bill already has a bipartisan record. The House approved the earlier version 294 to 134 in July 2025, with 78 Democrats supporting it. The Senate Banking Committee then advanced its portion 15 to 9 in May 2026. Democratic senators joined Republicans during that committee vote.

Pandl's assessment is less optimistic about the remaining legislative window. In Grayscale's Aug. 8 research note, he wrote that the "chances of passage this year now appear low." He attributed that view to the Senate calendar and election year politics rather than to an immediate threat to blockchain networks themselves.

Grayscale said failure to enact the bill would not immediately change how Bitcoin functions, halt major blockchain networks or stop the expansion of stablecoin payments. The firm's concern instead centers on capital formation, tokenized securities, intermediary oversight and developer protections that would receive a more durable statutory basis under a full legislative framework. Those conclusions are Grayscale's policy assessment, not a guarantee of how investment would respond.

The firm also warned that "a greater share of new investment may occur overseas" without a federal market structure framework. Pandl argued that jurisdictions offering clearer token issuance rules and stronger developer protections could attract activity that might otherwise take place in the U.S. The forecast remains uncertain and depends on future policy decisions as well as industry behavior.

Congress is not the only source of U.S. crypto policy. In March, the SEC issued a formal interpretation addressing several categories of crypto assets and explaining how federal securities laws apply to activities including staking, mining, airdrops and asset wrapping. It also addressed when a nonsecurity crypto asset may become tied to an investment contract.

The agency's 2026 regulatory agenda goes further. It lists possible rules for crypto asset offerings and safe harbors, changes to accommodate crypto trading on alternative trading systems and national exchanges, and updates to custody requirements. The SEC also says its framework needs to account for onchain securities. As discussed in coverage of Mastercard's stablecoin compliance test, the SEC's approach to stablecoin regulation is a factor in the broader debate.

Agency action, however, is not identical to legislation. SEC rules operate within authority Congress has already given the regulator and can be altered by later commissions, challenged in court or revised through future rulemaking. A statute can instead establish responsibilities across agencies and impose requirements Congress chooses to write directly into law.

Attention now turns to Sept. 15. The procedural filing prevents the August recess from becoming the immediate end of the bill's 2026 effort. It does not show that lawmakers have resolved the disputes that delayed action before the break. Senators have continued debating ethics provisions, stablecoin rewards, enforcement authority, consumer protections and illicit finance rules.

Those divisions remain visible within the Senate Banking Committee. Chairman Tim Scott and other Republican sponsors argue that the framework would provide clearer rules while keeping digital asset development in the U.S. Meanwhile, committee minority staff released a fresh analysis on Aug. 5 arguing that the current text contains weaknesses in investor protection and national security, with concerns about ethics raised separately. Those are competing legislative positions rather than settled findings about the final bill.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis released updated text on July 22 combining work from the Banking and Agriculture committees. Even if senators clear the September procedural hurdle and eventually approve a revised bill, differences with the House passed version would still have to be resolved before legislation could reach the president.

Grayscale's broader argument remains testable rather than settled. Congress has given CLARITY another route forward in September, while the SEC has demonstrated that regulatory changes can continue independently. The Sept. 15 vote will provide the next measurable indication of whether those two paths continue in parallel or whether Congress can still produce a full U.S. crypto market structure law in 2026.