Galaxy Digital says the crypto regulation bill has a 30% chance of passing before the July recess. A last-minute push is needed to avoid a delay to September.
The CLARITY Act, a bill to set federal rules for crypto markets, has a 30% chance of passing the Senate before the summer recess, Galaxy Digital said. The firm cited a shortage of votes in the chamber.
Republicans control 53 seats but need 60 to overcome a filibuster. Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren have objected to the bill's ethics provisions, which would be enforced by the Justice Department, and to a sunset clause set for 2029. Republican leader Mitch McConnell has been absent since a hospitalization, further complicating the vote count.
“The time for incremental negotiations is over. A last-minute effort is needed,” Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy Digital, said.
If the Senate does not begin the process by July 30, the bill will be postponed until September, when it will compete with the federal budget and midterm elections. A failure would leave the U.S. crypto industry without a clear regulatory framework for another year.
The bill would clarify the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That could reduce the risk of SEC lawsuits against exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken, which list Bitcoin. Without the bill, the SEC may continue to target platforms for selling unregistered securities, as it did with Ripple. Passage could encourage institutional investment through spot exchange-traded funds, Galaxy Digital analysts said.
The July 30 deadline is the next marker. Goldman Sachs CEO backs CLARITY Act as banks fight stablecoin rewards.
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