Polymarket odds drop to 22% as Senate Democrats block CLARITY Act cloture vote over ethics rules. Three scenarios remain before the August recess.
Alpha Score of 52 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, poor value, moderate quality, strong sentiment.
Senate Democrats are expected to block the CLARITY Act's procedural vote over ethics disagreements, leaving the crypto market structure bill with only two days to secure a vote before the August recess.
Polymarket now gives the bill a 22% chance of reaching a Senate vote before the break, down sharply from 36% just days ago.
The bill needs 60 votes to move forward on a cloture motion. Negotiations have stalled over ethics rules tied to public officials and cryptocurrency. Democrats have warned they will block the procedural vote unless a bipartisan agreement is reached.
Senator Angela Alsobrooks dismissed a Republican proposal to leave enforcement to the Justice Department, calling it "wild and unserious" and "not a serious proposal."
"Without signs of progress from the White House on a bipartisan ethics deal and other breakthroughs, Senate Democrats will deny cloture for the crypto bill," the statement read.
Senator Ruben Gallego also expressed frustration over the lack of progress, saying, "We are clearly here, trying to engage constructively. At this point, if they're not engaging, it's telling me that they don't want this to happen."
Three scenarios remain for the bill. The most likely is that Senate Majority Leader John Thune files a cloture motion. The earliest procedural vote would land on Aug. 7, the final day before recess. That vote would only decide whether the Senate can begin debating the bill, not pass it.
A second path is unanimous consent to speed things up. A single senator can block that request. With Democrats still opposing key parts of the bill, that outcome looks unlikely.
The third possibility is that no vote happens at all. The Senate would then spend its remaining time on judicial nominations and a Russia sanctions package before leaving.
Despite the Senate delays, some crypto leaders say the industry will keep moving forward. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said crypto adoption will not stop even if the CLARITY Act is delayed. He expects the SEC to introduce rules that could be even more supportive for the industry.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently said the agency is "ready, willing and able" to create crypto regulations without waiting for Congress.
The Senate's next scheduled session begins Sept. 8. If the bill fails to pass before then, the CLARITY Act will face a busier legislative calendar in September, making its path to law harder.
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