Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act enters Senate's final week before recess
Five weekdays remain before the Senate recess. CLARITY Act odds sit at 30% on Polymarket. Ethics disputes and stablecoin reward rules are the main obstacles. A motion to proceed or cloture filing would signal momentum.
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The CLARITY Act enters the Senate's last scheduled week before the August recess. Monday's floor schedule opens with a government funding bill, and the crypto bill has not yet appeared on the calendar.
Negotiators are still working through disputes over government ethics and stablecoin rewards. Prediction markets price the odds of the bill becoming law this year at roughly 30%, according to Polymarket's most heavily traded market, which has about $3.7 million in volume.
Aug. 7 is the last scheduled weekday before the Senate's state work period begins Aug. 10 and runs through Sept. 11. That leaves five weekdays to produce floor action before the break. A missed window sends the fight into September, when a busier Senate calendar could make floor time harder to find.
The House passed H.R. 3633, the CLARITY Act, 294-134 on July 17, 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15-9 on May 14, 2026. Sen. Cynthia Lummis released the merged Banking and Agriculture Committee text on July 22, and it is the current negotiating draft.
Clearing the Senate's procedural threshold requires 60 votes to end debate. Republicans hold 53 seats, so even unanimous GOP support would require at least seven votes from Democrats or Democratic-aligned independents. The exact number would rise with absences or Republican defections. Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have opposed the bill.
An adopted motion to proceed would bring CLARITY to the Senate floor. A cloture vote would test whether that 60-vote threshold exists. Clearing it still falls short of final passage. Senate passage would still require the House to approve the Senate text or the chambers to reconcile their differences before the president could sign the bill.
Democratic objections around ethics, consumer safeguards and illicit-finance rules sharpened within 48 hours of the July 22 text release. Senate Banking Democrats argue that the ethics language would still allow President Donald Trump and other senior officials to profit from existing crypto ventures. Staff renewed that argument on July 30, describing the current restrictions as full of loopholes around enforcement and existing holdings.
The draft bars certain senior officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets until 2029. Negotiators are still working out who enforces that rule and how the bill treats existing arrangements.