CLARITY Act Draft Faces August 7 Deadline After July 4 Miss

The CLARITY Act did not make its July 4 signing target. A floor vote is now in the works. It may come after the Senate returns from its recess July 13, as members work on different versions of the two bills drafted by the Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee respectively.

That means the last possible day to release the draft before summer recess is August 7.

Republicans must gain at least seven Democrat votes to move the bill forward. Two undecided problems are preventing them from reaching the 60-vote threshold. The first is about ethical standards in the context of President Trump's cryptocurrency income. The second involves a debate on the extent of regulation for crypto platform products. Both are significant enough for senators to keep delaying.

One positive sign emerged this week. Major County Sheriffs of America removed their opposition to the DeFi provision and moved to a neutral position. The National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives also went in favor of the bill, according to CoinGape.

Both Senators Lummis and Tim Scott have made public appeals for a vote before the August recess.

Polymarket shows the CLARITY Act at 47% probability of being signed into law by the end of 2026. The chances dropped from 55% after the Senate failed to release the draft before July 4. The probability peaked at 85% in early March before declining. Analysts have said passage in 2026 is unlikely if the bill fails to pass this summer.