
Galaxy Research cut odds to 50%. Senate scheduling crunch threatens passage before August recess.
The July 4 deadline for the CLARITY Act passed without approval. Nearly a year after the U.S. House passed the bill, it now faces a Senate scheduling crunch that threatens to push consideration into 2027.
President Donald Trump tied the crypto market structure bill to the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which he called off signing. That housing legislation included a ban on a central bank digital currency and had bipartisan support in both chambers. In March, Trump said he would not sign other bills until Republicans passed the SAVE America Act. The resulting Senate calendar squeeze directly compressed the CLARITY Act's window before the August recess.
Trump later retreated from that position. Senator Tim Scott said he supports advancing the bill as soon as possible. Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee have already put forward a bipartisan proposal. The urgency, Scott said, stems from a concern that extended regulatory ambiguity could push crypto activity to jurisdictions with clearer rules.
Galaxy Research lowered its probability estimate for the CLARITY Act to 50%, down from 60% in early June, the firm said. In early June, optimism was high even inside the White House that the bill would pass by its original July 4 target.
If Republicans cannot secure the required 60 votes before the Senate's August recess, consideration could slip to the next Congress in 2027. Many lawmakers will refocus on reelection campaigns, shifting congressional priorities and further delaying the bill.
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