CLARITY Act Bill's Passage Odds Plunge to 16% Over Ethics Fight

The Senate’s decision to postpone the cloture vote until mid-September effectively burns the remaining legislative calendar.

The SEC canceled a meeting scheduled for August 14, 2026, where commissioners were expected to discuss new crypto-specific regulations. The agency attributed the cancellation to an unforeseen scheduling issue.

That leaves both the SEC and CFTC operating under their existing authorities – precisely the patchwork approach the CLARITY Act was designed to replace. The SEC continues to lean on the Howey test for determining which tokens qualify as securities. The CFTC treats certain digital assets as commodities.

The drop in passage odds from 82% to 16% reflects a real shift in how informed observers assess the landscape. The conflict-of-interest provisions that derailed the Senate negotiations address situations where public officials with crypto holdings participate in regulatory decisions affecting those holdings.

The September 15 cloture vote is now the next milestone. Even if the Senate manages to advance the bill past cloture, the ethics provisions and DeFi-related disagreements would still need resolution before a final vote. Conference committee reconciliation with the House version would follow.