Crypto▼ Bearish
CLARITY Act Approval Odds Hit Low as Senate Text Faces Delay
Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act hit 31% after a White House meeting failed to produce revised Senate text. The bill needs 60 votes before the August recess.
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The CLARITY Act suffered a fresh setback Thursday after President Donald Trump's meeting with Republican senators did not produce the promised revised Senate text. Industry leaders now expect the draft next week, Eleanor Terrett reported. The delay extends uncertainty around the crypto market structure bill.
Polymarket's contract for the legislation becoming law by the end of 2026 traded near 31% on Friday before recovering to 35%. Friday's print compared with 73% on May 11 and about 47% in early June. The decline reflected traders' doubt that negotiators can settle the ethics dispute and secure enough Democratic votes, according to Polymarket data. The measure needs 60 votes to advance in the Senate. Senate leaders have little time before the August recess.
Senator Ruben Gallego has called the Republican ethics language too weak. Democrats want tighter restrictions covering the president, vice president, senior officials and members of Congress with crypto interests. Trump's 2025 financial disclosure reported more than $1 billion in crypto-related gains, intensifying the dispute. Senator Cory Booker kept negotiations open. He said the legislation requires a bipartisan pathway. Releasing text without Democratic support could harden opposition, he warned.