CLARITY Act approval odds on Polymarket fell 26% to 39% after Senate Democrats criticized the ethics provision. The bill faces a steep path to passage in 2026.
Alpha Score of 35 reflects weak overall profile with weak momentum, weak value, poor quality, moderate sentiment.
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fell sharply on Polymarket on Wednesday, dropping 26 percentage points to 39% within a day. The 24-hour trade volume on the prediction market reached $2.31 million, according to the platform.
The drop followed a joint statement from seven Senate Democrats who criticized the latest version of the crypto market structure bill. The revised draft, released by Senate Republicans, includes an ethics provision that gives the Department of Justice enforcement authority over how senior government officials invest in crypto assets.
Senators Catherine Cortez Masto, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper, Mark Warner and Raphael Warnock said the bill “falls short” on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity. Alsobrooks, during a discussion of the provision, called the Republican proposal “wild and unserious and stone-cold crazy,” according to comments reported by financial reporter Eleanor Mueller.
The new draft would ban covered elected officials – the President, Vice President, members of Congress, federal judges and their spouses – from issuing or sponsoring a crypto asset. It also requires them to sell their crypto holdings, place them in a blind trust, or both. The ethics provision is set to expire on January 20, 2029.
Democrats had pressed for tougher ethics rules after financial disclosures showed President Donald Trump made up to $1.4 billion from crypto activities last year. Trump reportedly agreed to an ethics clause earlier this week. The revised draft also adds provisions to expand law enforcement powers over crypto-related crimes, addressing concerns that the earlier version allowed illicit finance.
Before the draft was released, Senate Republicans briefed crypto industry executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, on the proposal. The bill now faces a steep path to a floor vote. A bipartisan compromise on ethics remains the key hurdle; any further erosion of Democratic support would push the odds lower. A deal that wins over a majority of Senate Democrats would likely lift the probability back above 50%.
No date has been set for a committee markup or a floor vote. The regulatory debate around crypto market structure, including the role of the CFTC, remains central to the bill's progress.
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.