Clarity Act 2026 Odds Hit 5-Month Low on Polymarket

The probability of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 fell to its lowest level since late January, according to Polymarket data. On June 24 the contract dropped 24% over 24 hours to roughly 41%, slipping below the April 25 lows that preceded the Senate Banking Committee's 15-9 vote to advance the bill on May 14.

The decline reflects a shrinking legislative calendar. The Senate is scheduled to break from June 29 through July 10, leaving limited floor time in July before the August recess. Polymarket traders have priced low odds of a floor vote before that break, according to the contract's price history.

Unresolved negotiations on ethics provisions, illicit-finance safeguards, and stablecoin rules in decentralized finance continue to block progress. Even with some bipartisan support, the bill needs roughly 60 votes to overcome a Senate filibuster. That threshold looks uncertain given the current calendar and outstanding disagreements.

Senator Tim Scott has predicted passage before August. The Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee will hold a field hearing titled "Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation" on July 17 in New York. That hearing could serve as a catalyst for renewed momentum. The odds suggest traders see the path as narrowing, not widening.

The next concrete marker is whether leadership schedules a floor vote before the August recess. Without that, the probability is likely to stay near current levels until September.