Clarity Act 2026 odds drop to 37% on Polymarket; Senate stalls vote

The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 fell to 37% on Polymarket, the prediction market said. The bill, which would split digital asset oversight between the CFTC and the SEC, cleared the Senate Banking Committee earlier this year. It has not received a floor vote.

The legislation sits on the Senate calendar. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not set a date for a vote. The delay follows months of negotiations and public statements from President Donald Trump and other lawmakers.

The bill would give the CFTC authority over digital asset spot markets, while the SEC would retain jurisdiction over securities. The agency currently has one commissioner.

No vote has been scheduled.