Galaxy Research puts CLARITY Act passage odds at 10% for 2026; Polymarket now shows 19%. The Senate vote lands Sept. 15, ahead of midterm campaigning.
The U.S. Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15, a date that comes after Majority Leader John Thune declined to bring the market structure bill to the floor before the August recess. Galaxy Research puts the chance the bill becomes law in 2026 at 10%. Polymarket bettors are at 19%.
The bill needs 60 Senate votes. Support has eroded over ethics rules covering crypto holdings by government officials and stablecoin yield provisions opposed by community banks, with some lawmakers also demanding stronger safeguards against illicit finance, according to the report. Galaxy called passage very challenging, noting the short window before attention turns to the midterm elections.
Citigroup Chief Executive Jane Fraser has backed the measure. She told Fox Business the bank has not given up on pushing for improvements, and that clearer rules would improve predictability and let banks and crypto firms compete under the same regulations. "I think it would be excellent for the system," she said.
Citi's own Bitcoin view is colder. The bank cut its 12-month target for Bitcoin (BTC) to $82,000 from $112,000, citing softer demand and weak ETF inflows, with regulation stalled. The bear case is $53,000; the bull case $108,000.
James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, told Fox Business he is essentially bullish on Bitcoin.
September has historically been weak for Bitcoin, even though the token has avoided a negative one since 2022. Bitcoin could gain if the CLARITY Act moves forward and the Fed's next ruling is favorable, crypto market analysis from AMBCrypto said. Without both, the report sees September as an especially challenging month for crypto.
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