Beijing targets 60tn yuan in retail sales by 2030 but with slower growth. The plan focuses on services spending and higher incomes to rebalance China's economy away from export-driven output.
China has approved its first five-year plan dedicated to boosting consumption, setting a target of around 60tn yuan, or roughly $8.84tn, in total retail sales of consumer goods by 2030. The plan, released by the State Council on Monday, is part of the broader 15th five-year plan framework and aims to raise household consumption's contribution to gross domestic product while securing steady growth in spending on goods and services.
According to state news agency Xinhua, the plan reshapes the composition of consumption, strengthens consumers' purchasing power, expands the range of goods and services available, and improves the conditions around spending. Local authorities have been told to treat consumption growth as a central priority in their own economic plans, tailoring targets and policy tools to local conditions.
The new goal follows a milestone reached in 2025, when total retail sales of consumer goods hit 50.1tn yuan, the first time the figure exceeded 50tn yuan during the 14th five-year plan period. Over that period, final consumption expenditure contributed an average of 58.8% to economic growth, a rise of ten percentage points from the preceding five years, the South China Morning Post reported. The earlier 50tn yuan goal, set by the Ministry of Commerce for 2025, was achieved at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 5%.
The new target implies a slowdown in annual retail sales growth to around 3.7%, reflecting weakening momentum in goods consumption even as policymakers push services spending as a stronger driver. Household consumption currently accounts for around 40% of the economy, a share the plan aims to increase significantly. Per capita services consumption made up 46.1% of total household consumption in 2025, still well below the roughly 70% seen in the United States.
The plan calls for higher wages, greater property income, improved social security and public services, and the removal of restrictive measures on car purchases, housing and entertainment approvals. It proposes expanded visa-free entry, additional international flights, and the promotion of new consumption models spanning digital, AI-powered, green, experiential and inbound consumption. Some government economists have called for long-delayed income and welfare reforms, pointing to a widening imbalance between strong export-backed industrial output and weak domestic demand.
For markets, the emphasis on services spending – including elderly care, childcare, tourism and culture – points to where policy support and potential investment incentives may be directed over the coming years. The acknowledgement that goods consumption momentum is weakening, alongside recent soft retail data, underscores the scale of the rebalancing challenge Chinese authorities face. Investors are likely to watch for follow-through on income and social security reforms, which economists see as prerequisites for the plan's targets to be credible.
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