China Q2 GDP: Export Engine Holds as Domestic Demand Falters

China's June activity data, due Wednesday alongside Q2 GDP, is expected to show an economy split in two.

Retail sales likely fell year-on-year, reflecting subdued domestic demand. Industrial output is seen holding at a solid +4.6% y/y, supported by the export engine. Fixed-asset investment remains a weak spot, with economists forecasting a 4.9% y/y decline.

The divergence has been a persistent theme through 2026. Exports have propped up factory output while consumers and property developers pull back. Q2 GDP will confirm whether the growth target remains within reach.

Markets will watch for any signal from Beijing on additional stimulus. The data lands as the yuan holds near the weak end of its trading band against the dollar, a sign the central bank is managing depreciation pressure rather than fighting it.