China Exports Jump 27% in June, Smashing Forecasts

China's trade growth accelerated sharply in June, with exports rising 27.0% year-on-year in US dollar terms, up from 19.4% in May and well above the 18.2% consensus. Imports also strengthened, climbing 36.0% from 27.4% previously and beating forecasts of 24.0%. The stronger-than-expected performance lifted the trade surplus to $125.6 billion from $105.4 billion.

The improvement was broad-based across major trading partners. Exports to the US rose around 14%, suggesting bilateral trade has remained resilient despite tariff headwinds. Shipments to Southeast Asia surged about 35%, reinforcing the region's importance as China's largest export destination, while exports to the European Union increased 18.5%. Technology was a standout driver, with exports of integrated circuits more than doubling from a year earlier to $38 billion, highlighting continued strength in global demand for semiconductors and AI-related supply chains.

One notable exception was energy. Crude oil imports fell 41% from a year earlier to 29.3 million tonnes, likely reflecting lower purchasing following the temporary easing in Middle East tensions during much of the survey period, as well as inventory management after earlier buying.