China exports jump 27% in June, imports surge 36% on AI demand

Strong demand for semiconductors and other AI-linked technology products provided an important cushion for manufacturers in China's $20 trillion economy, even as disruption from the Middle East conflict and a prolonged property downturn continue to weigh on broader growth. Separate manufacturing data for June had already shown overseas demand beginning to recover, though factory-gate prices kept falling as companies cut prices to win business from customers squeezed by higher energy costs tied to the conflict.

Exporters also benefited as U.S. retailers brought forward orders by four to six weeks to stock up for Black Friday and Christmas sales ahead of expected tariff increases later this year. Uncertainty over the broader trade relationship remains elevated following President Trump's May visit to Beijing, which failed to deliver the breakthroughs many had anticipated.

One outlier in the data was crude oil imports, which fell to their lowest level in nearly a decade even as overall import growth surged. That divergence complicates any straightforward read on the strength of domestic demand.

Strong exports had already helped China outperform expectations in the first quarter, though momentum has cooled since, reinforcing concerns that weak domestic demand leaves the economy exposed if external conditions soften. China is due to release its second quarter GDP figure on Wednesday, a release that now carries added significance given how sharply Tuesday's trade data beat expectations.