Chainalysis traces $5.4M in sanctioned funds through World Cup betting

Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in a report published July 30 that $20 billion was bet on the World Cup through on-chain prediction markets. Of that flow, the firm traced $5.4 million to sanctioned exchanges and other illicit sources.

During the tournament, about 400,000 wallets bet on the blockchain. Chainalysis put daily volume at about $50 million during the qualifying stretch in early 2026 and more than $250 million once matches began on June 11. The day Spain beat Argentina in the final, the market pulled in more than $300 million.

Measured from January onward, roughly $5.7 billion of the total $20 billion was traded during the five weeks of the tournament itself. World Cup questions accounted for about 63% of all prediction market activity in that period, the report said.

Traders in the US and China were the biggest contributors to volume. Canada and Thailand followed, with the UK behind. The winners were the majority. Chainalysis found that 55% of bettors were in profit. About 80% of them had already traded in prediction markets before.

One market asked whether Cristiano Ronaldo would shed tears as his final international campaign drew to a close. The “yes” side was right, and that bet alone banked $49 million.

A trader known as gud.hl staked $5.2 million on Argentina to win it all, primarily through Polymarket, according to Arkham Intelligence data. Spain’s 1-0 victory in the final wiped out the position. The loss ate most of the trader’s profit on the Hyperliquid platform.