CFTC Chair Sees Clarity Act Near Passage as EU Tightens Crypto Rules

Selig did not name a specific date or attach conditions. His remark was the strongest indication yet from the agency that the CFTC wants the bill passed. The Senate remains the bottleneck. Without action there, the probability sits at less than half.

For crypto markets, passage of the Clarity Act would remove one layer of jurisdiction uncertainty. Bitcoin and Ethereum, already designated commodities, would fall clearly under CFTC oversight. Altcoins currently in limbo between SEC and CFTC territory would gain a defined home. That could draw institutional allocators who have stayed on the sidelines because of regulatory ambiguity. A failure to pass would leave the current patchwork in place, with enforcement cases being the primary rulemaking tool.

The EU's MiCA overhaul is advancing. The European Commission has proposed amendments that would bring non-custodial lending and certain DeFi protocols under the regime, chipping away at the exemption that initially shielded decentralized platforms. That push mirrors the direction of the U.S. debate, where Senator Ron Wyden has introduced a bill to shield open-source developers from being classified as money transmitters. The two jurisdictions are moving toward convergence on basic principles. The timelines differ.

Selig's comments land at a moment when U.S. crypto regulation has been moving in fits and starts. The House passed the Clarity Act with bipartisan support in 2025. The Senate has not taken it up. The CFTC chair's public optimism may reflect private signals that a vote is coming. Until it materializes, the 44.5% prediction market price is the best forward-looking estimate available.

The Senate Banking Committee plans to mark up several bills this fall. The Clarity Act is not yet on the published agenda. Selig declined to comment on the likelihood of a vote this calendar year.