
Bitcoin fell 52% from its 2025 peak as the ECB, Fed, and other major central banks pivoted back to tightening. Ether and Solana sold off around policy announcements. The Bank of England meets Aug. 7.
The ECB's first rate hike in three years has pulled liquidity out of digital assets and cut Bitcoin's value by more than half since its 2025 peak.
Bitcoin fell from roughly $126,000 at the end of 2025 to about $60,000 by mid-2026, a 52% decline. The trigger was a coordinated shift in central bank policy after a long stretch of rate cuts that had fueled one of the most aggressive crypto rallies on record.
The European Central Bank moved first. On June 11 it raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the first increase since 2023. Inflation driven by geopolitical tensions in oil markets, with crude pushing past $88 a barrel in July, left the governing council with little room to hold, according to the ECB's June statement.
In July the ECB held rates steady but emphasized the unpredictability of future rate movements.
The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through both June and July. Nine of 19 policymakers projected at least one hike by year-end in their June dot plot, though July labor data cooled some of that enthusiasm, the Fed's July statement showed.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates multiple times in 2026. The Bank of Japan pushed its policy rate to 1.0% in June, a seismic shift for a central bank that spent most of the last decade in negative rate territory.
Bitcoin found a floor between $64,000 and $65,500 in July, a bounce that coincided with oil's surge past $88 a barrel. Some analysts read the stabilization as a pause rather than a reversal. "The correlation between crypto and macro liquidity conditions remains tight," said Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter. "Until the Fed signals a definitive end to the tightening cycle, the pressure on risk assets will persist."
Ether, Solana, and XRP all showed heightened sensitivity to central bank communications, with sell-offs clustering around policy announcements and press conferences, according to data from CoinGecko. Inflows into digital asset funds declined during rate-related announcements, a trend that accelerated through the second quarter.
Trading volumes on major exchanges fell roughly 30% from first-quarter averages, exchange data showed. Liquidity in order books thinned as market makers reduced risk exposure ahead of each central bank decision.
The Bank of England holds its next rate decision on Aug. 7. The Fed's September meeting follows on Sept. 17.
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