
Canadian PPI surged 0.6% in July, sharply beating the -0.5% consensus forecast and reversing June's 1.4% decline. The data arrives weeks before the Bank of Canada's next rate decision, complicating the case for further easing as swaps price a 40% chance of a September cut.
Canadian producer prices rose sharply in July, posting a 0.6% month-over-month gain against expectations for a 0.5% decline, Statistics Canada said Thursday.
The reading marks a sharp reversal from June's 1.4% drop. On a year-over-year basis, the producer price index held at 12.4%, matching the prior month's pace.
The raw materials price index, a separate measure tracking the cost of crude inputs, fell 2.2% month-over-month. That was a smaller decline than the 6.9% drop economists had forecast. Year-over-year, raw material costs rose 18.1%, down from 20.7% in June.
The data lands just ahead of the next Bank of Canada rate decision. The central bank has been watching input cost pressures for signs that domestic inflation is broadening beyond the shelter and services categories. A PPI number well above consensus complicates the case for further easing, though the raw materials component continues to soften on an annual basis.
Market pricing for the September rate move barely budged after the release. Swaps imply roughly a 40% chance of a cut, down from 45% before the print. The Canadian dollar held near session lows against the greenback, trading around 1.3620.
The Bank of Canada next meets on Sept. 4.
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