
Canada's June jobs report showed 18,000 new positions, near expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.5%. TD Bank said the Bank of Canada will likely hold its policy rate at 2.25% next week.
Canada's labour market added 18,000 jobs in June, landing near the low end of economist forecasts. The unemployment rate eased to 6.5% from 6.6%, and the labour force participation rate held steady at 65%.
TD Bank Financial Group said the report was broadly in line with expectations, following an exceptionally strong gain in May. Hiring moderated, and the unemployment rate returned to where it began the year.
The gains were concentrated in the private sector, while public-sector employment fell. Accommodation and food services led job creation with 15,000 new positions. Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, and has shed 61,000 since January 2025, when tariff uncertainty began to build.
Average hourly wages rose 3.3% year-over-year, up from a 3.0% pace in May. TD Bank noted that manufacturing remains a weak spot, a reminder that the economy continues to operate below capacity. The disinflationary offset from trade-exposed sectors supports the case for the Bank of Canada to stay on hold.
The central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% at next week's meeting. The June jobs data does not change that path. For the Canadian dollar, the focus now shifts to upcoming U.S. data and oil price moves.
The Bank of Canada meets next week. TD Bank sees no rate change.
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