Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks slow Strait of Hormuz traffic, lifting Brent above $76. Iran rushes exports, Russia bans diesel, Chevron tanker hit. Plus India SPR, Freeport LNG outage.
Brent crude cleared $76 a barrel this week after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and revived the Middle East risk premium. The waterway saw a sharp drop in tanker movements as at least three QatarEnergy LNG carriers turned back, lifting insurance costs and pushing oil up about $4 on the week.
Iran loaded 11 million barrels of crude onto tankers Thursday, trying to squeeze out shipments before President Trump threatened a blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The short-lived ceasefire with Tehran fell apart days after it was announced.
Russia imposed a one-month ban on diesel exports, cutting roughly 500,000 barrels a day of supply to curb domestic prices after Ukrainian drone strikes hit refineries. European diesel cracks jumped to $60 a barrel, a 15-year high.
Ukraine attacked the Yasa Polaris tanker, chartered by Chevron (CVX), with a drone as it approached the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The ship abandoned its loading of Kazakh CPC Blend crude and sailed toward Turkey. Chevron's Alpha Score sits at 45, reflecting mixed fundamentals as the company navigates supply-chain risks in the region.
India is expanding its strategic petroleum reserves. State-owned ONGC will build a 13-million-barrel facility in Mangalore after the Hormuz blockade exposed how little cushion the country has in its crude inventories.
Freeport LNG will shut its 16.5 million-tonne-per-year Texas terminal from July 10 until late August for a major turnaround. Feedgas deliveries have already dropped from 2.5 billion cubic feet per day to 1.5 Bcf/d, threatening to tighten Atlantic Basin LNG supply.
The International Energy Agency published its monthly report, pushing its expectation of an oil surplus into 2027. It now sees 2026 demand growth at 1 million barrels a day, and world oil supply falling by 3.7 million b/d this year due to Middle East disruptions.
Beijing lifted refined fuel export restrictions for state refiners for the rest of July and allowed private refiner ZPC to resume shipments after a four-month halt. Refiners are targeting about 3 million tonnes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel exports this month.
Turkey and Iraq agreed on a 12-month extension that will keep crude flowing via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, finding a stopgap before the initial contract ran out on July 27. A final deal is expected within days.
Venezuela's acting president approved a revamped Hydrocarbons Law, modernizing energy-sector regulations after two decades of nationalization. President Trump notified Congress he plans to remove Syria from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, starting a 45-day review that could ease restrictions on energy investments. Chevron and ConocoPhillips have signed preliminary exploration deals in Syria.
QatarEnergy paused efforts to restart production at its Ras Laffan liquefaction facilities after the attack on the Al Rekayyat LNG carrier, despite having amassed 11 empty vessels outside the port.
The next scheduled catalyst is the July 10 Freeport LNG shutdown and the 45-day review period for Syria's removal from the terror list, which could open the door for Chevron and ConocoPhillips to formalize exploration deals.
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