
Brent crude rallied toward $99, pressuring the yen and lifting the Canadian dollar. Middle East supply fears escalated. Traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude pushed above $99 a barrel Thursday. Fighting in the Middle East threatened the Strait of Hormuz and other oil transit routes. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, climbed toward $91.
The rally is rippling through currency markets. The yen weakened against the dollar. Japan's import costs are rising, pressuring the trade balance, traders said. USD/JPY pushed toward 160. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, currencies of oil-exporting economies, gained alongside crude.
The dollar itself was mixed. Higher oil prices stoke inflation, a dynamic that typically supports the dollar by delaying rate cuts. The same dynamic raises recession risks that cap gains, traders said.
The dollar index held near recent highs.
Traders said the Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk. About 20 million barrels a day pass through the chokepoint. A disruption, traders said, would dwarf previous supply shocks.
The market is pricing a risk premium that expands with every headline out of the region.
Brent's approach to $100, traders said, brings option barriers and psychological resistance into play. The market is overbought on a 14-day relative strength index, and dip-buying has been consistent throughout the rally.
Proprietary trader Chris at FXEmpire said overbought readings do not matter in a supply-shock environment, and pullbacks will attract buyers.
Chris said the bid under crude remains intact until a diplomatic breakthrough or an escalation. The yen crosses will be the most sensitive transmission mechanism into forex markets, he said.
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