Brent at $86 as Middle East Ceasefire Unravels

Brent entered a clear downtrend after being repeatedly rejected from the psychological $110 zone in May. Lower highs and lower lows defined the move, with a descending trendline respected for nearly two months.

After bottoming near $70 in early July, Brent shifted character. It printed higher highs and higher lows as renewed Middle East tensions took over. The shift was confirmed by a break and retest of the descending trendline, followed by a reclaim and retest of the 200-period EMA. With two ascending trendlines now supporting the move, price sits at a key juncture: the $85 zone, a former support turned resistance. A confirmed break here would open the path back toward the $90-$92 zone.

Brent could reject $85 once again, pulling the price back into the $70-$80 range that has defined the past month. Confirmation would come from a break below both the short-term trendline and the 200-period EMA, signaling that buyers have lost control and exposing the range lows.

Brent now sits at a genuine crossroads, caught between an unresolved geopolitical crisis and a technical structure hinting at renewed strength. Whether this bounce marks a real turning point or just another head-fake within a volatile range will likely hinge on who blinks first. Washington and Tehran, or buyers and sellers at $85. Either way, the next move could set the tone for the entire energy market this summer.