
Bolivia's 46-day road blockades are clearing, with closures down to 50 from over 100. Economic damage hit $2.8B, 5.5% of GDP. Divisions among protesters and a looming IMF deal shift the outlook.
Road blockades that choked Bolivia for 46 days are starting to clear. The number of closures fell to roughly 50 by Monday morning from more than 100 in recent days, according to the country's highway administrator. Protesters have pulled back in parts of La Paz, Cochabamba and El Alto. Government crews are clearing debris. Citizens in some areas are removing stones and logs by hand.
The unrest, led by the national labor union, the La Paz farmers federation and former President Evo Morales, demanded the resignation of President Rodrigo Paz. The economic toll hit $2.8 billion, about 5.5% of GDP, per the National Chamber of Industries. That figure may have shifted the calculus.
Divisions among protesters accelerated the de-escalation. Some factions within the unions – teachers and factory workers – have signed labor agreements with the government. Five regional unions have asked their national leaders to begin talks. More appear willing to engage.
Rolando Choque, general secretary of the farmers federation, said his group would send a letter outlining conditions for dialogue. "If these conditions are not met within 24 hours, the blockades will surely escalate," he said. The president's resignation is absent from the list of conditions, according to Choque.
Last week, Paz signed a law easing the state's ability to impose emergency measures against the unrest. His administration also said it is nearing a $3 billion financing program with the International Monetary Fund.
It is too early to call the crisis resolved. On Sunday, angry citizens in downtown La Paz threw tomatoes at union leaders, accusing them of damaging the economy. Morales, who retains a large base of support, criticized those willing to negotiate with the government in a radio broadcast.
The economic damage will persist even after the roads open, said Gary Rodríguez, manager of the Bolivian Institute of Foreign Trade. Nearly two months of blockades disrupted supply flows to La Paz, driving up the cost of basic goods and creating kilometer-long lines at gas stations. Some drivers waited a week to refuel. Businesses have closed or placed workers on forced leave.
"The consequences will be felt in the coming months and until the end of the year, even if the blockades end immediately," Rodríguez said. "There are units that operate on credit, and if production is lost, they are left with that debt."
José Eduardo Iriarte, head of the La Paz Chamber of Industries, said 70% of industries in the department have halted operations. Some producers in rural areas – including members of the groups that organized the protests – have pressured their leaders to return to work after seeing their own economic activity hit by the closures.
"We are hopeful that a complete solution will be found soon, what we are asking for, thinking about the future, is that this cannot happen again," Iriarte said. "We cannot be held hostage."
The 24-hour deadline from Choque's federation creates a near-term catalyst. If talks stall and blockades re-escalate, the $3 billion IMF program – a critical backstop for Paz – could face political headwinds. If the de-escalation holds, the focus shifts to the pace of economic recovery and whether the government can restore confidence after a 5.5% GDP shock.
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