BlackRock report says 35% of Bitcoin supply may be vulnerable to quantum attacks, but upgrading cryptography is far easier than building a functional quantum computer. Coordination is the real challenge.
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, published a report Thursday arguing that Bitcoin and other crypto networks are well positioned to fend off the threat of quantum computers – if the industry can coordinate its upgrade path in time.
The report, titled Quantum Computing and Blockchains, says upgrading existing cryptography to post-quantum (PQ) standards is technically straightforward. The harder problem is getting a decentralized, consensus-driven community to agree on a timeline and implement it.
“In our view, PQ migration for cryptocurrencies is eminently addressable from a technical standpoint, and the key challenge is one of timely coordination and implementation,” the report read.
BlackRock manages more than $15 trillion in assets and has direct exposure to the sector through its spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds, launched in 2024. The firm’s Bitcoin fund was the most successful ETF debut in history. CEO Larry Fink has called Bitcoin “digital gold” and an “international asset.”
The report flagged a specific vulnerability: about 35% of circulating Bitcoin supply is potentially exposed to certain attack types because of publicly visible public keys. Between 11% and 19% of that supply may be permanently lost regardless of any migration, the report noted.
Quantum computers exist today but are error-prone. No machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve cryptography has been built. Bitcoin remains the largest computer network in existence by hash rate.
Alongside Coinbase, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Block, BlackRock on Thursday announced the formation of the Bitcoin Security Consortium, a group that will fund open-source developers working on proposals such as BIP-360, which introduces quantum-resistant signatures. BlackRock called BIP-360 “a credible, well-designed piece of a larger puzzle” but stopped short of endorsing it as the final solution.
The report concluded that the defense has the advantage for now.
“That said, it is a much less daunting task to upgrade current cryptographic systems (including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others) to a quantum-secure standard than it is to build a CRQC from where quantum computing progress stands today,” the report noted. “Thus, advantage remains decidedly with the defense, at the current juncture.”
The Bitcoin (BTC) profile and Ethereum (ETH) profile pages track the latest network metrics. The coordination timeline for a PQ upgrade remains the key variable to watch.
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