Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the crypto industry can progress through SEC rulemaking and institutional adoption even if the Clarity Act stalls before the Senate recess. Polymarket odds fell to 23% from 75% in mid-May.
The Clarity Act faces a tight window in Washington before the Senate recess begins Aug. 10. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the cryptocurrency industry no longer needs a single piece of legislation to keep moving forward.
Hougan argued in a blog post that regulatory progress and institutional adoption are likely to keep advancing even if the bill stalls. He pointed to the Securities and Exchange Commission as an alternative path. SEC Chair Paul Atkins recently indicated the agency is willing to introduce rules covering many of the same issues the Clarity Act addresses, Hougan noted.
SEC-led rulemaking could prove more supportive of blockchain innovation in the near term than a congressional compromise, he said. Hougan acknowledged that future administrations could appoint regulators with different policy priorities. He estimated the industry has at least two and a half years before a new administration could replace the SEC chair – time enough for adoption to deepen further.
Hougan said institutional participation has fundamentally changed the industry. He cited BlackRock, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, and Visa as examples of traditional finance firms already expanding into blockchain and tokenized assets. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which carries an Alpha Score of 65 reflecting moderate momentum, is among the firms building tokenization platforms. As more large institutions integrate blockchain infrastructure, reversing the industry's direction becomes harder regardless of who leads the SEC, Hougan said.
A legislative delay has costs. Hougan described the Clarity Act as potentially entering a "walking dead" phase if it fails this week – alive procedurally but making little progress. It could return for review in the fall or winter of 2026 and might be folded into a year-end omnibus package. Such delays prolong regulatory uncertainty, especially for institutional investors seeking clear legal frameworks before expanding digital asset exposure.
The legislative path is complicated further by Democratic concerns over President Trump's cryptocurrency conflicts of interest and efforts by senators and tribal gaming regulators to include restrictions on sports-related prediction markets. Prediction market Polymarket now puts the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law by the end of 2026 at 23%, down from roughly 75% in mid-May.
Hougan acknowledged that congressional approval would improve regulatory certainty and investor confidence. He argues the broader digital asset ecosystem has matured enough that its future no longer depends on a single legislative milestone. The Senate recess begins Aug. 10. The Clarity Act has not been scheduled for a floor vote.
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