BitMEX's Hayes Flags Possible Bitcoin Dip to $50K Before $1M Run

Despite that near-term caution, Hayes remains bullish over a longer horizon. He expects the pace of announced AI capital expenditure to decelerate around mid-to-late 2027, becoming more evident by 2028. Credit issuance, however, is likely to keep expanding during that slowdown, mirroring the mid-2000s when mortgage lending grew even after U.S. home price appreciation cooled.

When growth in actual construction eventually contracts, over-leveraged participants holding weaker AI-related debt could face solvency challenges, Hayes said. At that point, he expects authorities to intervene aggressively. Once policymakers recognize that AI's contribution to GDP growth resembles a conventional property bubble, they will likely respond with substantial monetary expansion, potentially exceeding the scale of the 2008 response.

That injection of liquidity would ultimately push Bitcoin higher, Hayes wrote. “This will ultimately drive bitcoin to one million and beyond,” he said, noting that unlike previous crises, Bitcoin already exists as a mature asset capable of capturing the upside from such interventions.

Governments, particularly in the United States and China, have strong incentives to support the AI sector on national security and economic grounds, Hayes said. That backing could take forms that create significant new liquidity, which historically benefits scarce, decentralized assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes views Bitcoin as a sensitive indicator of fiat liquidity conditions, positioning it to thrive once the misallocated capital in the AI buildout forces a broader policy response. The timeline for any such credit stresses remains years away, and current conditions reflect a corrective phase within a still-unfolding AI cycle.