Bitcoin Nears Split as BIP-110 Miner Support Stays at 2.6%

Bitcoin is closing in on a possible chain split after block 961,632 as BIP-110 backers prepare to enforce rules that most miners have not signaled. With signaling stuck at roughly 2.59% and the mandatory window arriving within days, the proposal's supporters are now openly floating a proof-of-work algorithm swap as a last-resort contingency.

The code is not scheduled for activation, and developer Chris Guida has described it as an escape route rather than an imminent fork. Still, the public codebase raises the stakes around BIP-110, a temporary soft fork that would restrict how much nonfinancial data can be embedded in bitcoin transactions. Nodes enforcing BIP-110 would reject blocks that do not signal support, potentially splitting the chain if a meaningful number of miners refuse.

Guida rebased proof-of-work change code originally written by Bitcoin developer Luke Dashjr in 2017 onto a recent Bitcoin Knots codebase. The public branch updates the older concept for modern software and includes changes to mining validation, consensus settings, block handling, chain parameters and functional tests. On Aug. 4, Guida told the public the code is being kept "in our back pocket" in case miners block or stall BIP-110.

"People seem to think that the intention is for this pow change to activate immediately," the developer wrote. "That's not the case. This is just some code to have in our back pocket in case miners betray bitcoin, to activate at some point later."

The purpose is to give BIP-110 supporters an escape route from the computing power controlled by existing miners. A new proof-of-work algorithm would prevent today's specialized bitcoin mining machines from immediately dominating the breakaway chain. Guida has said he expects miners to support a smooth BIP-110 activation, while Dashjr has doubled down by saying "Core is the scamcoin," making clear he sees the fight as far from over.

The proposal requires 55% miner signaling, or 1,109 of 2,016 blocks, for an early lock-in. With just 207 blocks remaining before the mandatory window opens at block 961,632, only 47 of 1,818 blocks have signaled support. The mandatory signaling window is projected for this weekend on or around Aug. 8 or 9. Nodes enforcing BIP-110 would then reject blocks that do not signal support, with lock-in expected no later than block 963,648 and activation targeted around block 965,664.

Major mining pools including Antpool, F2Pool, ViaBTC and MARA Pool have revealed little about their plans. Support has come largely from smaller operators such as SoV, Roughnecks and Sympatheia. Exchanges and custodians remain mostly silent. Australian bitcoin platforms Bitaroo and Hardblock are among the few to publicly outline contingency plans.

Those backing Ordinals, Runes and other arbitrary blockchain data are making their position unmistakably clear. At block height 961,278, MARA Pool mined a block containing only two transactions, one of which embedded a vintage-style Pepe the Frog image. "Really MARA?" one user wrote. "3.85 MB space for this? People using Slipstream for this…"

How the hard fork would work

Bitcoin currently uses double SHA-256 as its PoW algorithm. Specialized machines called application-specific integrated circuits perform that calculation far more efficiently than ordinary computers and account for nearly all modern bitcoin mining. Changing the algorithm would make those machines ineffective on the new chain unless developers selected a compatible replacement.

Guida's code allows a future hard fork to switch algorithms after a configurable time. The available options include SHA-256, SHA-256d, RIPEMD-160 and HASH160, although the mainnet setting leaves the fork unscheduled by default. Any actual launch would require developers and users to agree on an algorithm, activation time, software release and coordination plan. No such schedule currently exists.

The first block under the replacement algorithm would receive a mining target roughly 1 million times easier under the default setting. That reset is intended to help a chain with little initial computing power produce blocks instead of freezing. Normal difficulty rules would then resume.

Lightning Network risks

A proof-of-work fork would create complications far beyond mining. Start9 has warned that Lightning Network channels opened before a split may be difficult to recover or migrate because their pre-signed transactions, time locks and penalty rules were built around a shared chain history. A slowly advancing or reorganized chain could leave channel balances stranded or expose users to disputes involving older channel states.

Start9 advised users to consider cooperative channel closures before the mandatory signaling window and said it closed its own company node channels as a precaution. Closing a Lightning Network channel normally returns funds to regular onchain outputs controlled by the user's keys. Exchanges, custodians and payment services would face separate decisions about deposits, withdrawals, confirmation requirements and replay protection.

The dispute revives arguments from Bitcoin's 2017 block-size fight, when users promoted software enforcement as a check on miner power. BIP-110 supporters say economic nodes define Bitcoin's rules and should be able to reject miners that refuse them. Opponents believe the activation design is aggressive and that miners following the existing consensus are not attacking the network.

At chain tip 961,425 as of 8:15 a.m. EDT on Friday, Aug. 7, 2026, only 207 blocks remain before the mandate begins. The immediate test is whether bitcoin miners change their signaling behavior during the mandatory window and whether enforcing nodes remain on a viable chain.