Bitcoin Holds $63K Support as $605M in Liquidations Hit Crypto

Bitcoin briefly fell toward $63,000 on Monday, and Ethereum slipped below $1,900, as selling pressure swept through crypto markets ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 29 meeting. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with CME FedWatch data putting the probability at 64.2%. A 35.8% chance of a quarter-point hike remains on the table.

CoinGlass data showed nearly 137,900 traders liquidated over 24 hours, with total forced liquidations reaching roughly $605 million. Long positions accounted for about $532 million of that, compared with $73 million in short liquidations. The largest single liquidation happened on Hyperliquid, where a $24.6 million position was closed.

The imbalance points to a market caught offside by macro-driven selling. Traders had piled into leveraged long bets expecting a benign Fed outcome; the unwind hit those positions hardest.

Bitcoin was trading near $63,550 after touching $63,200. It stayed above its 200-day moving average at $63,025, a level traders have watched as long-term support. The asset slipped below its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, a sign sellers control the near-term trend. The Relative Strength Index dropped to 38.4, approaching oversold territory without signaling capitulation.

On-chain data painted a similar picture. Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score fell to about 0.42, well below its historical average of 1.7 but still above zero. Seven-day realized profit and loss came in at roughly $239 million, suggesting investors were taking gains rather than fleeing under stress.

Prediction markets turned cautious. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $64,000 dropped from 78.5% to 47% within an hour, reflecting the macro-driven shift in sentiment.

Ethereum traded around $1,886, giving back part of last week's advance. It sat below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 100-day and 200-day lines, meaning the longer-term trend held despite weak short-term momentum. Ethereum's RSI eased to 45, showing fading buying pressure without entering oversold territory. Support sat near $1,870, with resistance around $1,900-$1,925.

Selling pressure spread across altcoins, with most large-cap tokens posting steeper declines than Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past week.

The Fed's decision on Wednesday will determine whether Bitcoin holds above $63,000 and its 200-day moving average, or extends the current deleveraging. A hawkish signal could push the market into a deeper correction, while a dovish tone might revive risk appetite and support a recovery.

For the crypto market at large, the question is whether the selloff is a sharp reset of overleveraged positions or the start of a broader downturn. The coming days will provide an answer.