Institutions pulled $2.8B from spot Bitcoin ETFs over nine days, the longest withdrawal streak since launch. Capital rotation into AI stocks and key technical levels determine if this is a capitulation bottom or more downside.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of net outflows, the longest withdrawal streak since the products launched in January 2024. The complex has lost roughly $2.8 billion over that period.
This week alone saw $1.3 billion exit the funds, extending a three-week outflow streak. Monthly withdrawals now stand at roughly $2.3 billion. Bitcoin fell from $80,000 to $73,000 over the same window.
The streak is the most sustained period of institutional selling since Bitcoin ETFs began trading. The question for traders is whether this is a capitulation signal or a structural rotation that has further to run.
The selling goes beyond Bitcoin's price decline. Since the start of the year, Bitcoin has lagged AI stocks and semiconductor names. Those sectors keep pulling capital because infrastructure spending growth continues to draw institutional money. Some institutions appear to be moving toward sectors that have posted stronger returns recently.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded its largest single-day outflow since launch earlier this week. The transaction executed through a dark pool, which suggests an institutional player exited via a block-sized order rather than a series of retail trades.
Dark pool activity adds execution risk. If more block-sized exits appear in dark pools, the next wave of selling could hit before the public order book reflects it. Authorized participants must sell underlying BTC to raise cash for redemptions, creating mechanical selling pressure on spot markets.
The 50-day SMA at $77,211 sits below the 200-day SMA at $79,816, keeping the November 2025 death cross in place. The 20-day EMA at $76,637 and 50-day EMA at $76,387 sit close together, pointing to choppy sideways action rather than a clean recovery. MACD sits below its signal line with a negative histogram, showing buyers are losing control of momentum.
Key levels to watch:
The 12-month performance sits down 30.34%, meaning rallies still need follow-through before they can be treated as anything more than short-term moves.
Glassnode data shows the 14-day moving average of ETF flows tends to bottom near significant price turning points. The same pattern showed up during the February correction when Bitcoin fell toward $60,000, and again in November when outflows picked up around Bitcoin's pullback near $85,000. Both became local lows before recoveries followed.
Practical rule: ETF flow streaks are lagging indicators of sentiment, not leading ones. By the time a nine-day outflow streak is visible, the price has already repriced. The question is whether the catalyst that started the outflows is still active.
A single day of net inflows would break the psychological streak. A close above the 200-day EMA at $81,202 would signal that the bounce has follow-through. If Bitcoin stabilizes above $75,000 and ETF outflows slow to zero or turn positive, the rotation narrative loses force.
If AI stocks and semiconductor names continue to outperform Bitcoin on a relative basis, the capital rotation will persist. Institutions are not necessarily bearish on crypto. They are chasing better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere.
For related reading on crypto market structure and regulatory catalysts, see the CLARITY Act Vote Math Threatens Trump's July 4 Crypto Goal and Paxos Wins SEC Nod to Clear U.S. Stocks on Blockchain.
The nine-day outflow streak is the longest since Bitcoin ETFs launched, and $2.8 billion in redemptions is a material number. The same pattern has marked local bottoms twice before. The difference this time is the competing narrative of institutional rotation into AI and semiconductors. A confirmed close above $81,202 would be the first real sign that the outflow streak was a buying opportunity. Until then, the path of least resistance remains sideways to lower.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.