Binance.US plans to apply for a CFTC prediction market license in August. The move targets a segment where Robinhood generated $156 million in event contract revenue last quarter.
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Binance.US plans to apply for a federal license that would let it offer regulated event contracts to U.S. customers, according to a report from journalist Eleanor Terret citing CEO Stephen Gregory. Speaking at the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas, Gregory said the exchange would file for a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market (DCM) license in August.
Approval would allow Binance.US to list futures, options and event-based contracts under CFTC oversight, adding a business line beyond its existing spot crypto service. Gregory had signaled the strategy earlier this month, when he told the conference the exchange would pursue licenses for derivatives, perpetual futures and prediction markets as part of its expansion plans.
The move places Binance.US in a small but growing field of federally regulated prediction market operators. Kalshi and Polymarket US already operate in the segment. Gemini secured its own CFTC license earlier this year. Coinbase entered the market through a partnership with Kalshi that offers event contracts to U.S. users. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Robinhood has discussed adding prediction market contracts from Crypto.com to its brokerage platform.
Binance.US is also trying to rebuild after several years of regulatory setbacks. Gregory said earlier this month the company wanted to regain the roughly 20% share of the U.S. crypto exchange market it once held. Alongside lower trading fees and renewed liquidity efforts, he identified prediction markets and derivatives as products that could create additional revenue streams, subject to regulatory approvals.
Interest in prediction markets has accelerated as several companies look beyond traditional crypto trading. Robinhood's latest quarterly earnings illustrate the shift. The brokerage reported $156 million in revenue from event contracts during the second quarter, more than 10 times the level a year earlier. Customers traded more than 13.6 billion event contracts during the quarter, making the category its fastest-growing source of transaction-based revenue, the company said in its earnings release. While Robinhood's cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell 38% year over year, event contracts, options and equities helped lift total quarterly revenue to a record $1.31 billion.
Federal approval would not remove every legal hurdle facing prediction market operators. Multiple states continue arguing that sports-related event contracts fall under state gambling laws even when platforms operate under federal commodities regulation. The legal disagreement intensified this week after a federal judge in Wisconsin rejected the CFTC's request to stop the state from enforcing its gambling laws against platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase. Judge William Griesbach ruled that the agency had not demonstrated that sports event contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act for purposes of obtaining a preliminary injunction. The court also concluded that Wisconsin's gambling laws were not preempted by federal commodities regulations, allowing the state's enforcement effort to continue while litigation proceeds. The CFTC said it will appeal.
Elsewhere, federal courts have reached different conclusions. Minnesota temporarily blocked enforcement of its prediction market ban. Courts in New York, Michigan and Washington issued rulings that favored state enforcement in separate disputes. The conflicting outcomes have left operators without a consistent legal standard. At the regulatory level, the CFTC is still reviewing proposed amendments to Rule 40.11, which would establish a formal process for evaluating event contracts tied to gaming, war, terrorism, assassination and unlawful activity. Attorneys general from 44 states urged the Commission to withdraw and rewrite the proposal, arguing that it extends beyond the authority granted under the Commodity Exchange Act and enters an area traditionally regulated by states. The National Football League has called for tighter safeguards on sports prediction markets, including stronger integrity protections and longer regulatory review periods. By contrast, the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball have entered commercial partnerships with prediction market platforms.
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