Binance.US will apply for a CFTC license to offer prediction markets, aiming to rebuild its 20% market share. Robinhood's event contract revenue hit $156M last quarter, showing the growth.
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Binance.US will apply for a federal license that would let it offer prediction markets to customers in the United States. The exchange's CEO, Steve Gregory, shared the plan at the Rare Evo blockchain conference in Las Vegas this week.
Gregory said Binance.US will apply for a Designated Contract Market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in August. The CFTC had no record of a pending application from the company as of Wednesday.
A DCM license would let Binance.US list futures and event contracts under federal oversight. That adds a new business line beyond its current spot crypto trading services. Gregory said earlier this month the company wanted to pursue licenses for derivatives, perpetual futures, and prediction markets as part of a broader expansion.
Binance.US would join a small group of federally licensed prediction market operators if approved. Kalshi and Polymarket US already run in this space. Gemini received its own CFTC license earlier this year. Coinbase entered the market through a partnership with Kalshi that offers event contracts to U.S. users. Robinhood has also discussed adding prediction market contracts from Crypto.com to its brokerage app, the Wall Street Journal reported.
For Binance.US, the move is part of a larger recovery plan. Gregory has said he wants to rebuild the roughly 20% share of the U.S. crypto exchange market the company once held before regulatory issues hurt its business.
Robinhood's recent earnings show how fast this market is growing. The company reported $156 million in event contract revenue last quarter, more than 10 times what it made a year ago. Customers traded over 13.6 billion event contracts during the quarter, making event contracts Robinhood's fastest growing source of transaction-based revenue. Robinhood's crypto trading revenue fell 38% year over year. Event contracts and other products helped push total quarterly revenue to a record $1.31 billion.
Legal questions remain unresolved even for licensed operators. Several states argue that sports-related event contracts should fall under state gambling laws, regardless of federal oversight. That disagreement grew louder this week when a federal judge in Wisconsin ruled against the CFTC's request to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws on platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase. Judge William Griesbach said the CFTC failed to show that sports contracts count as swaps under federal law. The CFTC plans to appeal the ruling.
Other courts have gone different directions. Minnesota temporarily blocked its own ban. Courts in New York, Michigan, and Washington sided with state enforcement in separate cases.
The CFTC is also reviewing changes to Rule 40.11, which would set a formal review process for event contracts tied to gaming and other sensitive categories. Attorneys general from 44 states have asked the agency to withdraw the proposal. Sports leagues are split on the topic. The NFL wants stronger safeguards and longer review periods. The NHL and MLB have signed commercial deals with prediction market platforms.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight reminded exchanges this week that new event contracts need detailed legal analysis and settlement terms, rather than broad template filings.
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