The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 10 formally allowed sports-related event contracts nationwide. Binance had launched zero-fee prediction markets inside its app two months earlier, in April. The FIFA World Cup that followed turned that timing into a volume surge.
The feature lets users trade contracts on match outcomes, player stats, and tournament winners with no gas fees, using their existing Binance account balance. No separate wallet is needed. The contracts run on Predict.fun, a BNB Smart Chain protocol. Binance said the integration was designed to lower the friction that keeps most crypto users off Polymarket and Kalshi.
Kalshi, the largest U.S.-regulated prediction market, reported that sports contracts accounted for 87% of its trading volume in early 2026. Polymarket processes roughly $15 billion a month across all categories. Binance has 200 million registered users, a base that dwarfs both competitors. The zero-fee structure could shift volume share quickly.
The CFTC order blurred the line between prediction markets and sports betting. The agency also warned that it would revisit the rules if market integrity issues emerged. Binance's regulatory status in the U.S. remains limited – its prediction market is not available to U.S. users, a company spokesperson said. The World Cup activity is concentrated in Asia and Europe, with some activity in Latin America.
The $20 billion monthly prediction market figure cited by industry trackers includes all platforms. Sports is the growth driver. Binance's entry intensifies competition for Polymarket and Kalshi, which charge fees and require separate wallets. For now, the World Cup provides a constant flow of new events – group stage matches and knockout rounds. After the final on July 12, that catalyst disappears.
Monthly prediction market volume across all platforms now exceeds $20 billion, according to data from Kalshi's public filings. Binance has not disclosed its own volume for the feature. The company said it plans to add contracts for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections in the fourth quarter.
