Macro● Neutral
Bessent's Bond Moves Fail to Convince Prediction Market
Kalshi and Polymarket traders assign over 50% chance 10-year yields stay high despite Bessent doubling buybacks and considering TGA funds for support.
Continue with
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying multiple strategies to push down Treasury yields. Traders on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are betting those efforts won't change much.
Kalshi data show a 56% probability the 10-year note yield will close 2026 at or above 4.75%. The chance of yields above 5% is just 27%. The 10-year yield traded near 4.7% midday Monday.
On Polymarket, speculators assigned roughly a 66% chance the 10-year yield exceeds 4.8% at some point in 2026. That level has not been breached despite recent bond sell-offs.