Bernstein analysts raised their price target on Robinhood Markets to $160 a share, forecasting $1.7 billion in prediction market revenue by 2028 and citing tokenized equities as a long-term opportunity.
Bernstein analysts raised their price target on Robinhood Markets to $160 a share from $130, citing the online brokerage's potential in tokenized equities and prediction markets. The analysts maintained an Outperform rating on the stock, which traded at roughly $101 Monday.
In a research note published Monday, the analysts said prediction markets could become Robinhood's fastest-growing business. They forecast segment revenue of $1.7 billion by 2028, a compound annual growth rate of 64%. The company has been testing event-based derivatives tied to sports and economic outcomes.
Beyond prediction markets, Bernstein pointed to tokenized equities as a longer-term opportunity. Robinhood's Arbitrum-based layer-2 network, called Robinhood Chain, serves as its proprietary infrastructure for tokenized real-world assets. The analysts projected the value of onchain real-world assets could reach $2 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, up from about $35 billion today. Tokenized Treasuries and private credit have led the market so far. The analysts expect tokenized equities to take a larger share as institutional adoption expands.
The brokerage's own Alpha Score of 40 out of 100, a measure from AlphaScala's proprietary risk model, reflects the mixed signals in its current business mix. The score indicates the company remains heavily reliant on transaction-based revenue from crypto and options trading. The tokenization initiatives are still early-stage. The full analysis is available on the HOOD stock page.
The broader push for tokenized securities continued Monday. Brokerage infrastructure provider Alpaca and Broadridge Financial Solutions said they had integrated Broadridge's shareholder governance tools into Alpaca's Instant Tokenization Network. The integration adds proxy voting and regulatory disclosures for tokenized securities, giving token holders governance rights comparable to traditional shareholders. Broadridge's own Alpha Score of 46 out of 100 indicates a neutral outlook on its traditional financial services business, available on the BR stock page.
Last week, tokenization platform Securitize and investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald said they would develop infrastructure for blockchain-based initial public offerings and follow-on equity offerings, working within existing US securities rules. The partnerships aim to bring public equity issuance onto a distributed ledger.
Tokenized stocks have grown to roughly $2 billion in market value this year, according to RWA.xyz. That figure remains small relative to the $2 trillion to $4 trillion long-term projection Bernstein cited. The pace of infrastructure deals, however, suggests the asset class is building the rails before the volume arrives.
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