Bernstein maintains $140 target on Circle after Q2 earnings beat. USDC supply is growing again. The bull case does not depend on the CLARITY Act passing in September.
Bernstein analysts kept their Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group after the stablecoin issuer's second-quarter results. The $140 target implies roughly 59% upside from Circle's most recent close of $87.98.
Circle stock traded at $89.20 at writing, up 1.39%, for a market capitalization near $22.64 billion. The stock rallied more than 5% in a single session this week after a period of pressure during the broader market slide.
The bull case hinges on USDC supply growth, not pending legislation. USDC circulation rose about $1.7 billion over the past week after roughly six months of sideways movement, the Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted.
Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-over-year but slightly below analyst forecasts. Net income hit $48 million. Earnings per share of $0.18 topped market expectations.
Bernstein said the investment thesis does not require the CLARITY Act to pass during the Senate's September session. The bill would establish a U.S. regulatory framework for digital asset markets and clarify federal oversight. “We believe this growth cycle is independent of the Clarity Act passing in the September session,” the analysts wrote. They expect regulatory agencies to move faster on crypto rules if lawmakers fail to advance the legislation ahead of the scheduled Sept. 15 vote.
USDC continues to serve as collateral and settlement currency across decentralized finance, tokenized assets and prediction markets. Best crypto prediction markets offer stablecoin-based trading on political and economic outcomes.
The analysts flagged stablecoin payments, tokenization and blockchain-based capital markets as sources of further USDC adoption. They also pointed to emerging agent-based payments where software systems use stablecoins to settle transactions automatically.
Circle's crypto market analysis profile carries an Alpha Score of 28 out of 100, labeled Weak, in the Financial Services sector.
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