The ASX 200 is headed lower, tracking Wall Street's third straight drop as oil prices hit two-month highs and hopes for a US-Iran deal fade. US CPI data later today is the next catalyst.
Alpha Score of 49 reflects weak overall profile with strong momentum, poor value, moderate quality. Based on 3 of 4 signals – score is capped at 90 until remaining data ingests.
The S&P/ASX 200 is headed for a lower open, tracking a third straight decline on Wall Street where oil prices kept climbing and hopes for a US-Iran peace deal faded.
Futures pointed to a drop of about 0.6% before the bell. The overnight session in New York saw the S&P 500 fall 0.7% and the Nasdaq lose 1.1%, as energy stocks bucked the trend while tech and rate-sensitive names sold off.
Brent crude rose another 1.3% to $83.16 a barrel, its highest in two months. The move followed a Reuters report that President Donald Trump had called for Iran to pay compensation for people killed in wars and attacks, suggesting a diplomatic resolution is not imminent. Traders said the oil bid reflects both the geopolitical risk premium and expectations that tighter supply will feed into inflation prints.
That puts the US inflation data due later today in focus. Many investors see persistent energy costs as a risk to the disinflation narrative, which could push the Federal Reserve to hold rates higher for longer. The market is pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a cut by September, down from 70% a week ago.
Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday, as widely expected. Governor Michele Bullock repeated that the board remains vigilant on services inflation and that it is too early to declare victory. The statement offered no new guidance on timing, leaving markets to watch the quarterly CPI due in late April.
A new report from consultancy EnergyQuest highlighted a different kind of supply pressure. The West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 projects that Western Australia's domestic gas market could face supply shortfalls as demand rises and output from domestic-only projects declines. Matt Paull, head of consulting at EnergyQuest, said "on the current trajectory, WA's future gas market will start to look like it was a decade ago." He added that without further development, more than 15% of LNG export volumes would need to be diverted to the domestic market in the 2030s.
Commonwealth Bank delivered a strong first-half result, with cash net profit after tax up 7% to $11 billion and pre-provision profit rising 6% to $16.5 billion. Return on equity hit 14%. Operating income rose 6%, supported by customer growth and a broadly stable net interest margin. The bank's outlook section struck a cautious note. CBA warned that growth is slowing, with higher interest rates and inflation placing uneven pressure on household incomes and economic activity.
On the currency front, the Australian dollar bought US$0.705, little changed from Tuesday. Iron ore edged up 0.6% to $95.08 a tonne. US natural gas futures slipped 1.6% to $2.75 per MMBtu.
In small caps, Metallium said it expanded its commercial pipeline after positive testing results on a range of metals. Sprintex disclosed a new China partnership targeting a US$4 billion market. Black Canyon extended known manganese mineralisation at its Wandanya project in Western Australia by 400 metres to the south. Patronus Resources reported shallow gold intersections at Golden Dyke in the Northern Territory.
The US CPI print due later today is the next catalyst for the ASX. Any further move in oil prices that shifts the rate outlook will set the tone for Friday's session.
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