ASX futures point to a near-1% drop as the RBA's 2:30PM rate decision overrides Wall Street's Iran peace rally. Brent crude falls to $83.36, gold rises to $4,324.
Australian shares are heading for a near-1% drop at the open Tuesday, even as Wall Street surged on Trump's Iran peace deal. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% and the Nasdaq climbed 3% after the president announced a signed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. ASX futures tell a different story. Local traders are focused on the Reserve Bank's 2:30PM decision, not the fragile détente in the Middle East.
The RBA is expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% for the first time in 2026 after a string of hikes. Governor Michelle Bullock has kept markets guessing. No one wants to be caught leaning the wrong way if she delivers another increase. The meeting result lands at 2:30PM Sydney time, leaving room for the peace rally to resume later in the day – assuming the decision doesn't surprise. The Australian dollar bought 70.7 US cents ahead of the call.
The peace deal itself remains shaky. Trump has repeatedly declared "the deal's all signed," and Iranian ships are passing through the US blockade. Israel is still fighting in southern Lebanon and launching rockets. That uncertainty fed a mixed commodity session. Brent crude fell to $83.36 a barrel on the supply-side news. Gold rose to $4,324 an ounce on lingering risk premium. Iron ore edged up 0.6% to $102 a tonne in Singapore.
Several ASX-listed names are moving on company-specific news. Aussie Broadband (ASX:ABB) closed its AGL Telco acquisition, issuing $115 million in shares to AGL. The deal is expected to add 350,000 NBN services by the second quarter of FY27. oOh!media (ASX:OML) saw its bidding war heat up, with Pacific Equity Partners, I Squared Capital, Oaktree Capital, and Bain Capital all circling. The ask price has climbed to $845 million. Encounter (ASX:ENR) is running two rigs at Aileron in the West Arunta region for a 70,000-metre exploration campaign. Daly Resources, which was scheduled to debut Tuesday, has indefinitely delayed its float.
The divergence between Wall Street and the ASX shows how macro transmission works in practice. A Middle East peace deal depresses oil and lifts equity risk appetite globally. Domestic interest-rate uncertainty can override that signal in local markets. The RBA's decision at 2:30PM will determine whether the ASX catches up to the US rally or deepens the gap.
For broader context on how previous Iran-related rallies have shifted rate expectations, see Homebuilders rally as Iran deal cools rate-hike fears.
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