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Asia's crackdown on prediction markets sends volume West
Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand are blocking on-chain prediction platforms. The result: $20B monthly volume in the West and a widening regulatory divide.
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Asian regulators are treating crypto prediction markets as illegal gambling, pushing users toward Western platforms that operate under financial rules. The result is a shift in volume, liquidity, and innovation that leaves the region's own blockchain sector at a disadvantage, according to a July 8 report from Web3 research firm Tiger Research.
Prediction markets sell contracts that pay $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it does not. The price becomes a real-time probability estimate. On-chain settlement, used by platforms like Polymarket, removes the need for a central counterparty. Tiger Research estimated monthly volume across the sector at $14 billion, with the leading platforms valued at roughly $40 billion.
Singapore's Gambling Regulatory Authority blocked Polymarket in January 2025, calling it an unlicensed gambling website. Taiwan restricted the platform during the 2024 presidential election, punishing users under election law. Thailand ordered internet service providers to censor the platform. China's long-standing ban on gambling and cryptocurrency covers prediction markets as well. The list of countries where Polymarket is inaccessible now includes Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Myanmar, North Korea, Singapore, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, and Yemen. Users in Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand can close existing positions but cannot place new bets.
India banned real-money online gaming in 2025, a move that follows earlier action against the domestic opinion-trading platform Probo, according to Interexy, a blockchain development firm. The Philippines cancelled licenses for offshore gambling operators. Hong Kong warned that crypto prediction markets could be treated as illegal gambling. Indonesia froze more than 33,000 accounts linked to gambling. Vietnam removed illegal gambling apps from its app stores. Interexy noted that regulators are applying decades-old gambling laws rather than writing rules specific to crypto prediction markets.
Demand has not collapsed. Chosun Daily reported that South Korea's Opinion betting exchange surpassed 2 trillion won in weekly trading volume despite the country's strict gambling regulations.